Are wines from the 2024 French vintage worth buying? Angélique de Lencquesaing gives her perspective on the French news channel, BFM.
The weather is gloomy, and the Indian summer that everyone spoke of seems rather shy… It’s time to take stock of the 2024 harvest in France. What can we expect, and what implications does this have for wine investment? Angélique de Lencquesaing, co-founder of iDealwine, gives her take on things in an interview with Lorraine Goumot on BFM’s Tout pour investir (Everything to invest).
First of all, how does the 2024 harvest in France compare to previous years?
France is on the verge of losing its title as the world’s leading wine producer, overtaken by Italy, despite a challenging year for Italian winemakers too. With 41 million hectolitres of grapes harvested, our Italian neighbours have recorded their smallest harvest in 50 years!
Harvest forecasts in France were revised downwards in September. In France, we now anticipate an 18% loss in volume, meaning the 2024 harvest will not reach the threshold of 40 million hectolitres.
How come?
The weather in France has been far from ideal in 2024… Most vineyards – though not all, which we will discuss later – have been affected by challenging climatic conditions. The cool and rainy spring promoted the emergence of diseases, especially the infamous downy mildew. Late frost and hail episodes also took their toll, continuing through a September where the sun seldom shone.
As a result, the decline is significant compared to the more generous 2023 harvest. However, with a bit of perspective, this 18% decrease, when compared to the average from 2019 to 2023, is limited to only a 11% drop, according to the French Ministry of Agriculture.
The picture is grim; could 2024 be cursed like other vintages ending in “4”?
No, the picture isn’t that bleak, but these conditions will certainly have an impact on the volumes produced as well as the style of the wines. To preserve the quality of their juice, winemakers have had to work diligently in the vineyards, exercise patience, and delay the harvest – though not for too long, lest they risk losing their crop. As a result, these wines may have a lower alcohol content than those produced in sunnier years, which could resonate better with current consumer preferences.
If we take a look at the major wine regions, starting with Bordeaux, what’s the situation there?
The region has just finished harvesting some of its Cabernet parcels, taking advantage of the relatively mild weather. The Merlots, on the other hand, have suffered more from the rain, resulting in fruit failing to grow and bunches with different size grapes. According to the BIVB (Bordeaux Interprofessional Wine Board), the harvest is expected to be “historically low” for two reasons: firstly, the weather conditions have reduced yields, and secondly, the vines being pulled up in the region has contributed to this decline. Since the end of 2023, 8,000 hectares have been pulled up, with an additional 1,000 hectares expected to face the same fate.
What will be the characteristics of Bordeaux wines produced in 2024?
With a harvest down by 10%, Bordeaux is set to produce a vintage that is fresh, easy-drinking (lower in alcohol), and fruity. 2024 will likely yield more accessible wines to drink sooner, with a somewhat limited ageing potential compared to usual. But this style aligns with current market preferences. In fact, it’s a style you’ll also find in the wines of the 2021 vintage, which are now available for purchase and already very nice to drink.
So it is not going to be an investment vintage?
No, indeed, probably not for most wines, but it’s actually rather good news! 2024 is shaping up to be a vintage meant for immediate enjoyment, and seeing Bordeaux back on the table is a positive sign. For wine investment, it’s advisable to focus on recent exceptional vintages, such as 2020 or 2022, for example. These two vintages are of extremely high quality and offer excellent ageing potential.
And how is the harvest looking in Burgundy?
After two outstanding years in terms of volume and quality, Burgundy is back to a smaller harvest (-25%). The cause lies in the unprecedented rainfall, which has brought its share of diseases. On top of that, in some appellations like Chablis, hailstorms have severely impacted yields, destroying up to 50% of the crop. The vintage has required significant effort in the vineyards throughout the year to sort and eliminate affected berries, giving the remaining ones the best chance to thrive. The results are varied, with a very small harvest for reds and more generous volumes for whites.
Have all the wine regions been similarly affected?
The Jura, highly sought after by discerning enthusiasts, has suffered significantly from frost and mildew, with a staggering 71% drop in yield following an abundant 2023. In the Loire Valley, the average decline is around 30%. Beaujolais has also been impacted, particularly by hail, resulting in a 25% reduction. In Champagne, spring frost and mildew have led to a 16% decrease. The Rhône Valley has experienced a 12% decline, having also been hit by late frosts.
Have some regions still fared better this year?
The cooler, elevated areas of the Languedoc have been relatively spared, with a decline limited to just 4%, and the quality remains high. The vineyards in the South West have performed the best, recording an increase of 1%.
So, in a nutshell, we’re looking at a smaller harvest, resulting in fresher wines that are ready to drink sooner. What’s the impact of these previsions for wine enthusiasts?
With a reduced harvest, winemakers must maintain the economic balance of their operations. In some areas where wine prices are quite high, the impact on pricing will be minimal, unless there’s a significant imbalance between supply and demand. However, in regions where prices remain modest, producers will likely have to implement price increases, which carries the risk of losing some customers, especially given the current challenges regarding purchasing power.
Should enthusiasts consider stocking up by purchasing the existing vintages that are more affordable and more abundant?
Indeed, this is one of the effects of announcing a smaller harvest. Wine lovers may find themselves seeking out bottles from their favourite estates in the vintages currently available for sale. Fortunately, there is no shortage of stock, even in regions that have faced pressure in recent years, such as Burgundy.
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