The wine industry is currently facing several challenges – falling consumption, vines being uprooted and the emergence of non-alcoholic wine alternatives. So, what is the real state of affairs, and what does the future hold wine? Appearing on the programme Tout pour investir hosted by Lorraine Goumot a few days ago on the French news channel BFM, Thierry Desseauve and Angélique de Lencquesaing examined wine from an investment point of view, a recurring theme on the programme.
Thierry Desseauve, acclaimed wine critic and co-founder of Bettane+Desseauve with Michel Bettane in 2005, brings dual expertise as co-author of the esteemed Bettane+Desseauve Guide and organiser of major wine exhibitions.
Wine as an investment, a unique and unconventional choice, raises significant questions in light of rapidly evolving consumer habits. As lifestyles continue to shift, the conversation touched on the implications for the wine market and the profile of tomorrow’s consumers. How might these changes affect the viability of wine as a financial investment? This interview offered a dual perspective, combining Angélique’s market expertise with Thierry’s critical insights.
Are we really drinking less wine than before?
Let’s start with a promising observation: today, wine is enjoyed in 180 countries worldwide. We should also rejoice in the reputation French wines enjoy; it’s a reputation they share with wines from other countries, of course, but France does hold a prominent place.
As for consumption, we will cover it, but above all else, it’s the occasions for drinking wine that have changed. Gone are the days of the ‘everyday wine’, drunk with each meal. Countries that once included this habit at mealtimes, such as France and Italy, witnessed a drastic fall in consumption per inhabitant: -70% in France since 1960, and -28% over the last 20 years. Italy has experienced a 26% drop. Germany’s consumption per inhabitant has also fallen slightly (22.5 litres/inhabitant).
Consequently, the percentage of regular wine consumers has fallen relative to the population. In 1980, 51% of the French population were regular wine drinkers, whereas in 2022, this percentage was only 11%.
So the question beckons: what about consumption for ‘pleasure’, which is more occasional? While regular consumption has dropped, occasional and celebratory wine drinking has grown in importance. The USA, now the world’s largest wine market, has seen its consumption rise 40% from 2003 to 2023, with consumption per inhabitant increasing 20% over 20 years. That said, consumption in the country is ‘only’ 10 litres per inhabitant per year.
In ‘neo-consumer’ countries such as those in Asia, the situation is different. Here, a tiny fraction of the population is concerned, with cultural variations that have their specific causes in the different countries.
People in China over the age of 15 drink less than a litre per inhabitant. In the early 2010s, production and consumption peaked, although this has since subsided for different reasons than in the West (the economic and political context prevailing). In Hong Kong, consumption is 4–5 L/inhabitant and in Singapore, 3 L/inhabitant.
In these markets, this admittedly tiny segment of wine lovers is completely fascinated by fine wines – particularly French – and has developed an extraordinarily detailed knowledge of the leading winegrowing terroirs. This is a quest driven by singular motivations – to own what one’s neighbour doesn’t, to live a unique experience – and it’s creating a very dynamic market. The future is bright in these places as well as South Korea, Vietnam…
Has the ‘typical’ wine consumer aged?
As far as the age of wine lovers is concerned, regular consumers are generally over 55. At iDealwine, we don’t have this perception of ageing wine lovers. The average age of buyers has actually decreased by two years, now standing at 46 years old. Our tasting events are also well attended by young people in France but it’s even more striking abroad, particularly in Asia, but also in the United States, where the representation of younger people from higher socio-professional backgrounds is tending to overtake that of older people in the category of regular drinkers.
What major trends are emerging, particularly among young people? Are we moving towards a greater consumption of white wines?
Although red wines are losing ground, they still account for the majority, given that they’re still the colour of choice for regular consumers. The decline in red meat consumption and the advent of flexitarian lifestyles are contributing to the success of white wines. According to participants in the SoWine 2024 study, white wine is the preferred colour of wine lovers in 2024, with Chardonnay the most popular variety. But this is not yet clearly visible in iDealwine auctions: 73% of the bottles auctioned are red wines. Wine lovers come looking for fine wines for ageing and to enjoy with food.
More non-alcoholic wines, cocktails? More teetotallers? And what about real wine?
Wine lovers like us have trouble with this segment due to the fact that these drinks are often found in bottles that resemble their alcoholic counterparts. When a non-alcoholic drink adopts all the codes of a bottle of wine, or sparkling wine, our brain sends us information and expectations that we don’t find in alcohol-free drinks. Especially when it comes to texture and length on the palate, these drinks don’t match the experience we get from fine wine. However, for someone who knows very little about wine, this perception is generally different as they don’t have this preconceived idea.
According to a study conducted by the Vinexpo trade fair, the percentage of non-alcohol drinkers remains stable at 15%, and 28% of these say they have tried no/low-alcohol drinks. It is worth noting, however, that this percentage is much higher among younger people (42%). Women represent the majority.
In Asia, no-low is a trend, but not really at the top end of the market. In the USA, young people are driving growth in this segment (especially for alcohol-free beers) since they are the ones who go out the most and are perhaps more open to trying new things.
But the environmental factor should not be overlooked. Just as young people are looking to give more meaning to their lives and their work today, their drinking habits are also influenced. For wine, this is an asset, especially in France, where wine is a cultural product, an integral part of the country’s history. But not just any wine, of course. This raises the question of heritage: learning about wine is essential, and appreciating it is not a spur-of-the-moment thing.
Are you seeing the emergence of new drinking ‘moments’?
Wine continues to be a product of conviviality, interaction and sharing. These are neither empty words nor hollow expressions. French gastronomic cuisine, listed as an intangible part of the country’s heritage, is a cornerstone of French culture. However, the fact is that grand family meals are no longer as commonplace as they once were. When it comes to wine, which is not something we like spontaneously, we need to consider that an intergenerational transfer of knowledge is no longer carried out in the same way, with young people coming to wine by means other than the family circle.
For some consumer groups, the traditional family meal symbolises a bygone era. More informal formats, such as aperitif-dinners and after-work drinks, are on the rise. The success of wine bars is further proof of this. Here, wine has pride of place. With this change, the desire for less formal, less ‘intimidating’ wines is growing.
Fine wines nevertheless continue to generate great emotion. It’s no coincidence that leading sportsmen and women celebrate their medals or victories with their teams over fine bottles. They don’t make a secret of it, and this includes the likes of Stephen Curry and Lebron James (NBA basketball stars), tennis players with a passion for wine (Amélie Mauresmo, Yannick Noah), and many others who are more discreet but nonetheless passionate.
Is it still a good idea to consider wine as an investment opportunity and to build a collection with this in mind?
How many products attract worldwide interest like wine? How many collectable items enjoy such longevity, staying ‘alive’ for so long? Fine wines have unique characteristics. Given that the rarity of fine wines increases with time, wine retains all its appeal when looking for an investment option. That said, it’s essential to be aware of trends to make the right choices, because, as we’ve seen, wine lovers’ tastes have changed considerably in recent years.
Are you referring to Bordeaux? Bordeaux bashing?
Bordeaux was still the leading region in terms of volume sold in 2023 on iDealwine, despite a steady decline in favour of other regions. Will this decline continue or even accelerate? It’s important to consider the type of wines that enthusiasts look for at auction. Mature wines that are ready to be enjoyed, which are difficult to find through traditional channels. Here, the appeal of major regions such as Bordeaux, Burgundy and the Rhône Valley with wines that can withstand a long period of cellaring remains intact. They’re not alone, of course, but they do have a worldwide reputation. And this reputation it not yet enjoyed by other regions such as the Loire, Languedoc and Alsace beyond a circle of insiders. Even if we are working on it! In fact, more and more enthusiasts are expanding their outlook and are opening up to regions other than the traditional trio.
Are natural wines a gateway into wine?
By rejecting classic, conventional wines, so-called parent wines, and for the reasons already mentioned about how people discover wine, a segment of consumers, often among the youngest, is inclined to turn to natural wines. Environmental awareness can also prompt some people to turn to products that are considered more natural, created with minimum intervention, no additives, no inputs… in line, therefore, with aspirations for healthier, more sustainable viticulture.
Natural wine is a way of circumventing the straitjacket of education, of being tied to a certain social milieu or patriarchal family organisation. Some enthusiasts, sometimes major connoisseurs, have discovered natural wine ‘late in the game’, never to return. This is a minority, but we know some of them.
Are these wines eligible for investment?
A lot of precautions are necessary. Without the addition of sulphur at various stages in the winemaking process, conservation is more uncertain. The wines need to be free of faults and produced under impeccable sanitary conditions if they are to survive the years without losing their qualities or deteriorating. In recent years, some outstanding natural wines have been making the headlines at auction, some from traditional regions, others from more distant ones (Auvergne, Jura-Savoie, Sicily, etc.). So yes, this is a category worth considering, but with caution, perhaps with even more judgement than for the traditional big names, which have proved their worth over the decades and which, to use the metaphor of financial investments, are ‘family values’.
The gateways to wine remain abundant, as we can see, from the legendary names with established reputations to more experiential wines adapted to new drinking styles. A mosaic of beverages that have one thing in common – they continue to inspire wine lovers the world over.
Request a price estimate of your collection
